I'll repost my thoughts on this.
You'd think a banwave would get everyone and not on some selective pattern. It would be interesting to see how regular usage of the ps3 on cfw is going to be handled.
What I mean by that, loading games normally as if you're in ofw and not using the"backups" with multiman. It may be they can detect backups the way MS does with the xbox. A security sector does not get copied over and gets flagged.
The history wipe is another suspicious thing, Sony can get the hint each time they get logs from the same ps3 with nothing on the list. How about perform a history wipe with multiman, then use ps3 normally, netflix, gaming with the actual disc or browsing the store. At least when you turn on the ps3 the next time, it will send over legitimate looking logs.
Yes they can detect cfw, but it seems they're going after the immediate threats...(black ops 2 prestige cheaters and people who are dumb enough to play the leaked version on backup managers.)